Wheat Technical Analysis Summary
Buy Stop։ Above 1100
Stop Loss: Below 950
Wheat Chart Analysis
Wheat Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, WHEAT: D1 has approached the upper border of the downtrend. It should be broken up before opening a position. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if WHEAT: D1 rises above its most recent high: 1100. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the Parabolic signal, the lower Bollinger line and the last 2 lower fractals: 950. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (950) without activating the order (1100), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities – Wheat
In the 2021/2022 agricultural season, a reduction in global grain exports is expected. Will the WHEAT quotes continue to rise?
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its forecast for global wheat exports in its April 2021/2022 season review to 201.7 million tons from 204.8 million tons in its March review. The estimate of exports of Ukraine, the European Union, Kazakhstan and the USA has been reduced. Increased estimates of wheat exports from Russia, Brazil and Argentina. Recall that in the 2020/2021 season, global exports were lower and amounted to 198.7 million tons. It should be noted that the USDA raised the forecast for world wheat production in the 2021/2022 season to 778.83 million tons compared to 776.3 million tons in the 2020/2021 season. Meanwhile, the Ukraine Grain Association does not rule out a significant reduction in the wheat harvest in Ukraine this year to 18.2 million tons compared to 33 million tons a year earlier. Theoretically, this could negatively affect the estimate of world production in the next USDA survey in May. An additional positive for agricultural futures could be a strike of truck drivers in Argentina. This was reported by the Federación de Transportadores Argentinos. 85% of Argentine grain is transported by road from agricultural producers to sea export terminals.