Wheat Technical Analysis Summary
Sell Stop: Below 775
Stop Loss: Above 875
Wheat Chart Analysis
Wheat Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, WHEAT: D1 approached the uptrend support line. It must be broken down before opening a position. In this case, a “Head and Shoulders” shape may form. A number of technical analysis indicators have formed signals for a decline. We do not exclude a bearish movement if WHEAT falls below the last lower fractal: 775. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible above the last fractal upper, 9-year high and Parabolic signal: 875. After opening a pending order, move the stop-loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (875) without activating the order (775), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities – Wheat
China announced a new record grain harvest. Will the WHEAT quotes continue to decline?
The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported an increase in grain production in 2021 to 683 million tons. This is 2% more than in 2020. Wheat production in China increased by almost 4% to 136.9 million tons. Earlier, the International Grains Council (IGC) published a forecast of an increase in world wheat production in the 2020/2021 agricultural season to 773 million tons, compared to 761 million tons in the 2019/2020 season. At the same time, world stocks of wheat may increase by 2 million tons to 278 million tons. Another negative factor for quotations may be the plans of the Ukrainian government to increase wheat exports to 24.5 million tons in the season in 2020/2021 compared to 16.6 million tons in the previous season.