“Substantial further growth” and “Transitory” seems to be the keywords that the Fed likes to focus on, and may very well be the catalysts to the Fed’s tapering announcement that may very well happen in the next month’s FOMC meeting. If we do see some growth in the Unemployment rate, we might very well see the Fed push for tapering sooner rather than later. During last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium Fed chair Powell stated that they feel significant progress has been made, which is very hawkish considering last month’s unemployment data that came out stronger than expected.
ADP data was released on Wednesday, and it came out a lot lower than expected as 374 000 new private-sector jobs were created in comparison to the forecast of 640 000. This would normally be a good indication that the NFP figure should come out lower than expected, however the same was expected last month and the NFP and Unemployment rate came out significantly higher than expected. In comparison, the ADP figure has increased by 44 000 jobs compared to the previous month. That still indicated that there is positive employment growth being experienced.
For more in-depth analysis on the Unemployment figures, join me via our Facebook and LinkedIn pages tomorrow at 2:15 pm (SAST) where I’ll be doing a live stream during the event where I’ll go through all of the data as well as some assets and the impact of the data on the markets.