Sell Stop: Below 18.93
Stop Loss: Above 20.73
Sugar Chart Analysis
Sugar Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, SUGAR: D1 broke down the uptrend support line and the triangle. A number of technical analysis indicators have generated signals for further decline. We do not rule out a bearish movement if SUGAR: D1 falls below the last low and the lower Bollinger band: 18.93. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible above the high since February 2017, the last fractal high, the upper Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal: 20.73. After opening a pending order, move the stop to the next fractal maximum following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (20.73) without activating the order (18.93), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities – Sugar
Processing of sugar cane in Brazil did not decline as much as previously expected. Will the SUGAR quotes continue to decline?
The Brazilian Agricultural Association UNICA (União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar) reported a reduction in sugar cane processing in the 1st half of November 2021 by only 38% to 12.5 million tons compared to the same period in 2020. This is noticeably better than the preliminary forecast of 8.7 million tones. Earlier, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) raised its sugar export forecast to 6 million tons in the 2021/2022 season. This stopped the growth of quotations on the world market, despite the fact that exports from India in the 2020/2021 season were 15% higher. An additional negative for sugar may be Thailand Sugar Millers Corp’s forecast to increase its production in the 2021/2022 season by 44% to 11 million tons. Some investors now even expect Thailand to overtake India in sugar exports this season. In addition to all this, the fall in world oil prices may reduce the production of ethanol from sugar cane, which will increase its processing for sugar.