Buy Stop: Above 1265
Stop Loss: Below 1175
Soybean Chart Analysis
Soybean Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, SOYB: D1 has broken up the resistance line of the descending channel. A number of technical analysis indicators have formed signals for further growth. We do not exclude a bullish movement if SOYB rises above the last 3 last high fractals: 1265. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible below the minimum since December 2020, the last lower fractal, the lower Bollinger line and the Parabolic signal: 1175. After opening a pending order, move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (1175) without activating the order (1265), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities – Soybean
There has been an increase in soybean exports in USA. Will the SOYB quotes continue to rise?
US soybean exports totaled 2.9 million tones in the week ending 4/11/2021, according to the USDA. This is the weekly high since December 2020. Over the next week on 11/11/2021, US soybean exports fell to 2.07 million tones. However, there was a one-time deal in the volume of 264 thousand tons, the largest in a month. Some investors have decided that the United States may start ramping up soybean exports. Since the beginning of this year, it is only 16.2 million tons. This is 28% less than last year’s level for the same period – 22.6 million tons. Note that the USDA forecasts a decrease in soybean exports for the entire 2021 by only 10%. Worsening weather in South America due to the natural phenomenon of El Nino could reduce the forecast of soybean harvest. In the meantime, the USDA expects it to increase in the 2021/2022 growing season in Brazil by 4.3% and in Argentina by 7.1% compared to the 2020/2021 season.
By: Dmitry Lukashev – IFC Markets