Buy Stop: Above 2300
Stop Loss: Below 2080
Robusta Coffee Chart Analysis
Robusta Coffee Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, ROBUSTA: D1 broke above the resistance line of the short-term neutral range and renewed its 10-year high. A number of technical analysis indicators have formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if ROBUSTA: D1 rises above the last high and high since September 2011: 2300. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible below the Parabolic signal and the lower Bollinger line: 2080. After opening a pending order, move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (2080) without activating the order (2300), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities – Robusta Coffee
Coffee rises in price amid worsening weather in Brazil and reduced exports from Vietnam. Will the ROBUSTA quotes continue to rise?
Brazil is experiencing drought and cooling at the same time. U.S. Climate Prediction Center expects worse weather due to the natural phenomenon La Nina. Earlier, Conab cut its 2021 Brazilian arabica crop forecast to a 12-year low of 30.7 million bags. This is 37% less than the level of 2020. Archer Consulting expects a 55% decline in coffee exports from Brazil in the 2021/2022 agricultural season compared to the previous season. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) has cut the forecast for the global coffee surplus in the 2021/2022 season to 2.4 million bags from 2.63 million. Vietnam reduced the export of Robusta coffee in January-October 2021 to 1.3 million tons. This is 4.2% less compared to the same period last year. The main reason for this could be a shortage of containers for sea transport. The Green Coffee Association reported that US green coffee stocks totaled 6 million tones in October. This is 5.9% lower than last year’s level.
By: Dmitry Lukashev – IFC Markets