Orange Juice Technical Analysis Summary

 Orange Juice Technical Analysis Summary

Orange Juice Technical Analysis Summary.

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Buy Stop: Above 132.04

Stop Loss: Below 116.11

Parabolic SARBuy
Donchian ChannelNeutral

Orange Juice Chart Analysis

Orange Juice Technical Analysis

The technical analysis of the ORANGE price chart in daily timeframe shows #C-ORANGE: D1 has breached above the 200-day moving average MA(200) which has started rising itself. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper Donchian boundary at 132.04. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below 116.11. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (116.11) without reaching the order (132.04) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities – Orange Juice

Florida’s orange plantations continue to suffer from orange trees disease that has reduced crop yield many times. Will the orange prices continue rebounding?

Florida’s orange plantations suffer from a disease. The citrus greening disease, also known as HLB attacks and “suffocates” trees in Florida. The University of Florida estimates the greening disease has caused citrus growing to plunge by 80% over 15 years. HLB causes severe yield decline the older a citrus tree gets. Florida’s citrus acreage is planted with older, low-producing citrus trees. Nearly 57% of Florida’s oranges and 70% of red grapefruit trees are more than 14 years old according to the University of Florida, and these older trees have produced about 1.5 boxes per tree, down from more than five boxes per tree before HLB. Continuing HLB infection that reduces orange plantations yield is bullish for orange price. At the same insufficient tree replacement has also contributed to the decline in crop yields – there has only been one season since the 1999-2000 season when the number of replanted has exceeded lost trees. While Florida’s orange crop is down and is estimated to decline further, demand for orange juice keeps increasing as COVID-19 caused people to be more health-conscious and consume more orange juice. More than 90% of Florida’s orange crop is being squeezed for juice.

By: Ara Zohrabian – IFC Markets

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