Sell Stop: Below 0.7053
Stop Loss: Above 0.7202
NZD/USD Chart Analysis
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
The technical analysis of the NZDUSD price chart on daily timeframe shows NZDUSD,Daily has breached below the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is tilting downward. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower bound of the Donchian channel at 0.7053. A level below this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 0.7202. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved to the next fractal high, following Parabolic indicator signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Forex – NZD/USD
New Zealand labor market recovery continues while business and consumer confidence deteriorated. Will the NZDUSD price retreat reverse?
Data from the last couple of weeks portray a mixed picture of New Zealand economy. Building permits declined when continuing growth was forecast for September, the trade deficit rose in October, consumer sentiment softened following report business sentiment continued to deteriorate. However, unemployment declined in third quarter and labor force participation rate increased, global dairy trade price index rose on November 2 and electronic retail card spending contraction rate almost halved in October. Thus, building permits declined 1.9% over month in September when a 3.2% increase was forecast, the trade deficit rose to N$-2171 million from N$-2139 million, and the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group reported ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index declined to 98 for October from 104.5 in September. At the same time unemployment rate fell to 3.4% for Q3 from 4% in Q2, and global dairy trade price index rose 4.3% after 2.2% increase two weeks before that, while electronic card transactions in New Zealand fell 7.6% over year in October after 14.9% drop in September. As data show labor market continues to make progress, however businesses and consumers see deteriorating economic conditions ahead, which doesn’t allow to make an informed prediction on economy’s further performance and related strength or weakness of its currency.
By Ara Zohrabian – IFC Markets