EUR outlook bleak amid rising inflation

 EUR outlook bleak amid rising inflation

EUR outlook bleak amid rising inflation.

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The single European currency failed to develop an upside correction and resumed its decline but at a very moderate scale. The reason for this was the macroeconomic data in the EU that turned out to be slightly above expectations. Thus, the business activity index (PMI) in the services sector dropped from 59.0 to 56.4 while analysts predicted a decline to 56.3. The composite index, which was expected to fall from 59.0 to 56.1, eased to just 56.2. Although the difference is minor, it is still better than expected. On the other hand, the Producer Price Index was projected to rise from 12.4% to 13.7%, but instead, it increased to only 13.4%. This data was negative for the euro as it indicated either a slowdown in the business activity or rising inflation. So, the euro was only supported by the fact that markets had expected to see weaker indicators.

Producer Price Index (Europe):

It is worth focusing primarily on the PPI data as the PMI did not seem to be of great interest to investors yesterday. Otherwise, markets would have reacted to its release in the US, especially that  there were something to pay attention to. Thus, the Services PMI decreased to 54.9 while the forecast had predicted it to decline from 55.1 to 54.4. The figures came in much better than in Europe, but markets showed no reaction to this. Apparently, investors are worried more about inflation in the EU. 

Composite PMI (United States):

Today, the euro is likely to accelerate its pace of decline amid a drop in the EU retail sales. The indicator decreased from 3.1% to 0.6%. Such a rapid fall in consumer activity, coupled with the continuing rise in inflation, is a quite worrisome sign.

Retail sales (Europe):

The second factor to weigh on the euro may become the employment data in the US. According to analysts, the labor market has added 415,000 new jobs. Amid the current unemployment rate, even 200,000 new jobs would be a positive sign. So, the estimated jobs data indicates a steady recovery of the US labor market. The unemployment data comes ahead of the official report of the US Department of Labor report.

Jobs report (United States):

In the course of a correction from the support line of 1.1562, the EUR/USD pair reached the level of 1.1640. At this point, the quote came to a halt and pulled back towards 1.1600. Then, the pair was trading in the flat channel between 1.1590 and 1.1615.

Taking into account the downward cycle that was formed in early June, the market sentiment seems to be changing now. This may potentially lead to a change in the medium-term trend.

The RSI technical tool has reached the level of 50 on the 4-hour chart but failed to hold above it.  On the daily time frame, the RSI line is still located in the oversold zone.


The lack of a full-fledged correction indicates that the bearish trend prevails in the market.  This stops the bulls from increasing the volume of long positions on the pair. We may assume that market participants may soon approach the support at 1.1562 and attempt to break through it.

Consolidation of the price below 1.1550 will become the main sell signal for the euro. This will indicate a prolonged downtrend towards the area of 1.1500-1.1420.

InstaForex Group

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